Where Americans Moved in 2025 and What It Means for Phoenix Home Buyers and Sellers

By Scott Bryant, Bryant Real Estate

Every year, Americans make a powerful statement about where they want to live, not with words, but with moving trucks. Newly released U.S. Census data for 2025 shows clear winners and losers when it comes to domestic migration, and while states like South Carolina and Idaho grabbed headlines, the real story for Phoenix is what isn’t being said.

The Big Movers in 2025

Relative to population size, the states with the strongest net gains from out-of-state moves were:

• South Carolina (+1.21%)
• Idaho (+1.00%)
• South Carolina (+0.75%)

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the states with the largest net outflows included:

• New York (-0.69%)
• Hawaii  (-0.62%)
• Alaska (-0.61%)
• California (-0.58%)

The common denominator is simple: affordability and livability.

States attracting the most newcomers generally offer a better balance between home prices, incomes, and new construction. States losing residents tend to struggle with high housing costs, regulatory friction, and limited new housing supply.

So Where Does Arizonam and Phoenix, Fit In?

Arizona landed right in the middle, with net domestic migration growth of approximately 0.41% in 2025.

That number matters more than it looks.

Phoenix is no longer in the “unsustainably explosive” growth phase we saw during the pandemic years—and that’s actually good news for both buyers and sellers.

Here’s why 👇

What This Means for Phoenix Home Buyers

During COVID, migration to states like Florida, Texas, and Arizona was pulled forward, meaning several years’ worth of demand happened all at once. That created bidding wars, rapid appreciation, and tough conditions for buyers.

Now, Phoenix is in a more balanced phase:

• Still attracting new residents
• Still supported by job growth, lifestyle appeal, and climate
• But without the frenzy that defined 2020–2022

For buyers, this translates into:

• More negotiating leverage
• More inventory choices
• Fewer “panic offers”
• A chance to buy based on logic, not urgency

Phoenix continues to draw buyers from higher-cost states, especially California, but today’s buyers are more intentional. They’re focused on quality of life, long-term value, and neighborhood-specific advantages.

What This Means for Phoenix Home Sellers

If you’re selling in Phoenix, the takeaway isn’t “people stopped moving here.” It’s this:

The market now rewards strategy, not assumption.

States seeing the largest inflows tend to score well on affordability. Phoenix still competes well nationally, but buyers are sharper, more analytical, and less forgiving of overpriced or poorly positioned listings.

What wins in today’s Phoenix market:

• Accurate pricing from day one
• Strong presentation and condition
• Clear value relative to competing homes
• Hyper-local expertise (neighborhoods matter more than ever)

Homes that are positioned correctly still sell well. Homes priced like it’s 2022 sit.

A Note on California Outmigration (and Why It Still Matters to Phoenix)

Census data continues to show California as one of the largest sources of outbound movers nationwide. Political climate, housing affordability, taxes, and overall cost of living remain consistent motivators.

Phoenix remains a top landing spot because it offers:

• Strong job markets (healthcare, tech-adjacent, construction, logistics)
• No state income tax advantages compared to CA
• A wide range of housing—from entry-level to luxury
• Lifestyle-driven communities (golf, hiking, family neighborhoods, lock-and-leave homes)

Even as migration normalizes, Phoenix remains highly competitive in this equation.

The Bottom Line for Phoenix Real Estate

Phoenix doesn’t need to “win” the migration race to have a strong housing market.

What we’re seeing now is healthy normalization:

• Sustainable demand
• More rational pricing
• Better opportunities for prepared buyers
• A premium on smart sellers

If you’re buying, this is one of the best windows we’ve had in years to move without chaos.
If you’re selling, success depends on precision, not optimism.

And if you want to understand how your specific neighborhood fits into these national trends, that’s exactly where local expertise makes the difference.
—
Scott Bryant
Bryant Real Estate
Phoenix, Arizona