The “Silver Tsunami” May Never Hit Phoenix | Here’s What Buyers Really Need to Know

By Scott Bryant | Phoenix Real Estate Expert

For years, homebuyers across the country have been told to wait for the so-called “Silver Tsunami”, a massive wave of homes expected to hit the market as baby boomers downsize, sell, or pass properties on to the next generation.

But new national data suggests that wave may never fully arrive and in Phoenix, Arizona, the reality looks very different than many buyers expect.

Baby Boomers Control the Inventory And They’re Not Selling

Baby boomers currently hold nearly $19 trillion in housing wealth, representing almost half of all U.S. real estate value. The long-standing assumption has been that this inventory would eventually flood the market.

Instead, what we’re seeing is aging in place.

New research from Cotality shows that while a record 340,000 homes transferred via inheritance in the 12 months ending August 2025, that number represents just 7.4% of all transactions nationwide, hardly the market-reset buyers have been waiting for.

To put it into perspective:
There are roughly 30 million homes owned by Americans age 65 and older.

That tells us one thing very clearly, most seniors are staying put.

What This Means for the Phoenix Housing Market

Unlike California, Arizona doesn’t have extreme inheritance-based tax protections like Proposition 13, but Phoenix still faces a similar outcome:
inventory remains tight because older homeowners aren’t moving.

Here’s what I’m seeing on the ground in Phoenix:

• Longtime owners keeping homes in the family
• Adult children inheriting properties and holding them as rentals
• Heirs delaying sales due to probate or legal complexity
• Homes quietly transitioning ownership without ever hitting the MLS

That means buyers waiting for a sudden flood of listings may be waiting indefinitely.

Inherited Homes Don’t Equal More Listings

One of the biggest misconceptions is that inheritance automatically increases housing supply. In reality, inherited homes often:

• Become primary residences for heirs
• Stay vacant while families decide what to do
• Turn into long-term rental properties
• Get delayed by estate and probate timelines

From a market perspective, many of these homes never reach active inventory, especially in desirable areas of Phoenix where appreciation remains strong.

Affordability Is Pushing Multi-Generational Living

National data already shows this shift happening. In 2023, nearly 1 in 5 adults aged 25–34 lived with their parents, largely for financial reasons.

In higher-cost markets like California, that number climbs above 30% and Phoenix is starting to feel similar pressure as affordability tightens.

Inheritance is becoming a pathway to homeownership for some, but it does not translate into widespread relief for buyers competing in the open market.

The Real “Silver Tsunami” Is a Reshuffling, Not a Flood

What we’re likely witnessing isn’t a crash or a surge of listings, but a quiet reshuffling of housing within families.

Homes move from parents to children.
From owner-occupied to rental.
From one generation to the next, often without ever being publicly listed.

For buyers hoping the Silver Tsunami will suddenly fix inventory challenges, the data says otherwise.

Exactly What Buyers and Sellers in Phoenix Should Do Now

Buyers:
Waiting for prices to drop due to a wave of boomer listings is risky. Strategic timing, strong financing, and hyper-local expertise matter more than ever.

Sellers:
Low inventory continues to support pricing, especially in established Phoenix neighborhoods where resale supply remains limited.

Bottom Line

The Silver Tsunami may never arrive the way headlines promised.

Instead of a flood of homes, Phoenix is seeing gradual, controlled transitions, strong homeowner retention, and continued competition for quality listings.

If you’re trying to navigate what this means for your buying or selling strategy in Phoenix, clarity beats waiting.

—
Scott Bryant
Phoenix Real Estate Advisor
Helping buyers and sellers move with confidence in a low-inventory market