Are Home Prices Falling in Phoenix? A North Phoenix Agent's Honest Take

If you're asking whether home prices are falling in Phoenix, you're asking the right question. But like most things in real estate, the answer isn't a simple yes or no. Here's what's actually happening in the market right now, especially in North Phoenix, and what it means for you.

The Short Answer: Yes, But It's Not a Crash

Home prices in Phoenix are adjusting downward, but this isn't the dramatic crash some headlines might suggest. What we're seeing is a return to a normal, healthy real estate market after years of unprecedented growth. Let me explain what that actually looks like on the ground.

What I'm Seeing Every Day in North Phoenix

Walk through the Phoenix MLS with me, and here's the pattern you'll notice: most homes are reducing their prices while on the market. In fact, most properties need one or more price reductions to get moved. The days of listing a home and watching offers roll in above asking price? Those are behind us, at least for now.

But here's the nuance that matters: well-priced homes are still getting traffic and selling. The difference is that offers are consistently coming in below asking price, typically with buyer concessions requested. This is normal negotiation in a balanced market.

The Tale of Two Mindsets: Six Months Ago vs. Today

Six months ago, we were seeing the same price reduction pattern, but sellers were fighting it. They hadn't accepted the market shift yet. Today, sellers have adjusted their expectations. They understand they'll need to find middle ground with buyers, and because of this acceptance, the market is moving again.

Buyers have also adapted, though some have overcorrected. Here's a real example from one of my recent listings:

A buyer had been circling our Moon Valley property for months. After we did a price reduction, they finally submitted an offer, but it was extremely aggressive, the kind that assumes they can dictate every term because "it's a buyer's market." The problem? We received another offer just one day after our price reducton from a buyer who understood the reality: this isn't a distressed market where sellers are desperate.

We went under contract with the reasonable offer. When the aggressive buyer came back, they told us, "It's a buyer's market and we're picking the terms." My response? "Sorry, we're under contract with someone else. Your loss."

The lesson: This is a negotiation market, not a buyer's market or seller's market. Both sides need to come to the table with realistic expectations.

How to Know If You're Priced Right

I use a simple two-part test when considering a price reduction with my sellers:

1. Has the property had showings?

• If yes: You're likely 3-5% off the right price
• If no: You're likely 10% off the right price

Most homes that successfully sell are doing a 5% price reduction to get there. But here's the truth: it's easy to sell a home under 60 days if the property is priced right the first time.

The exception? Luxury properties over $1 million. These have always taken longer to sell, and that pattern continues. But for the majority of the market, pricing strategy is everything.

Moon Valley and North Phoenix: What You Need to Know

I focus on North Phoenix because I know this market intimately. Moon Valley, in particular, is an area I watch closely. Properties here are still moving when priced well, but this neighborhood has a tendency to get ahead of itself and price too high.

If you've been sitting on the market for 90+ days in North Phoenix, I'm talking to you. The market has spoken, you're overpriced.

Now More Than Ever: You Need a Polished Product

Here's something that's changed dramatically: a few photos and a sign in the ground won't cut it anymore. Pretty homes are still selling. Homes that look tired, outdated, or poorly presented? They're sitting.

This is where having the right agent matters more than ever. Your agent needs actual selling skills, not just access to the MLS.

This Isn't a Crash, It's a Return to Normal

Let me be clear: while prices have come down, this isn't a crash. If anything, this is what a normal real estate market looks like. After the chaos of the past few years, bidding wars, waived inspections, homes selling in hours, we're back to a healthy market with normal negotiation.

That's actually good news for everyone. Buyers can think through their decisions. Sellers can prepare their homes properly. Agents can actually add value through strategy and negotiation rather than just opening doors.

My Best Advice for Buyers

Find what's motivating the seller and use that to your advantage.

Walk through a home with an observant eye. Is this a job relocation? Signs might include recent transfers, empty rooms already cleared out, or the seller mentioning timing urgency. Is it a divorce? You might notice one side of the closet empty or decor choices that seem disjointed. Estate sale? Look for dated but well-maintained homes with older furnishings.

Having a realtor with good deduction skills and common sense is essential. These insights help you craft offers that speak to what the seller actually needs, not just what you want to pay.

My Best Advice for Sellers

Make sure your realtor knows how to sell.

They're going to need that skill in this market. When you're interviewing agents, ask them to describe your home to you. Listen carefully to their answer. Can they identify what makes it special? Do they understand the buyer who will fall in love with it? Can they articulate a marketing strategy beyond "I'll put it on the MLS"?

You'll be able to identify the right agent after that one question.

Why North Phoenix? Why Now?

If you're considering a move to the Phoenix area, let me tell you why North Phoenix deserves your attention.

It's all about options and lifestyle. You're centrally located, anything in the Phoenix metro is within your grasp. Want to hit Scottsdale for dinner? Easy. Need to get to downtown Phoenix for work? Done. Weekend trip up north to the cooler mountain towns? You're perfectly positioned.

But here's what most people don't realize yet: North Phoenix is up and coming. Buy now before it's discovered.

The infrastructure is developing, the community is growing, and the value proposition compared to other Phoenix submarkets is compelling. This is your opportunity to get in while prices are adjusting, before the next wave of buyers figures out what we already know.

The Bottom Line

Are home prices falling in Phoenix? Yes, they're adjusting. But they're not crashing. We're in a healthy, normal real estate market where pricing strategy, property presentation, and skilled negotiation matter more than ever.

If you're thinking about buying or selling in North Phoenix, this is exactly the kind of market where working with a local expert who knows the neighborhoods, understands current dynamics, and can navigate negotiations makes all the difference.

Let's Schedule a Consultation

Whether you're relocating to Arizona, considering a move within the Phoenix metro, or thinking about selling your North Phoenix property, I'd love to help you find your story here in Arizona.

The market is moving, opportunities exist, and the right strategy can make all the difference in your outcome.

Let's talk about your specific situation and create a plan that works for you.